The COVID-19 surge experts saw coming and the public ignored
COVID-19 hospitalizations at the four major South Bay medical centers increased from 46 on Nov. 1, to 506 on Wed., Dec. 23. Sources: California Department of Public Health and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Chart by Bernard Wong ( More charts at SubliminalMachines.com) The week before Thanksgiving, public health experts throughout California not only implored people to forgo family gatherings but provided data points and projections showing what might happen were that advice ignored. In Los Angeles County, forecasts from three respected public health institutions — Johns Hopkins University, UCLA, and UCSD — each projected an unprecedented spike in COVID-19 hospitalizations. An aggregate of these three forecasts assembled by Manhattan Beach data analyst Bernard Wong on Thanksgiving Day showed a projected 6,130 hospitalizations occuring on December 18. It seemed almost preposterous at the time; hospitalizations had for months largely stayed below 1,000, following a surge which reached its apex at just over 2,000 hospitalizations in mid-July. Then, in November, a gradual uptick to 1,800 hospitalizations took place over three weeks. After Thanksgiving, the numbers began…
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