All Ball Sports: Looking back, looking ahead
by Paul Teetor
Mark Twain, the greatest of all American writers, once said the past is the best predictor of the future, and that past success is the best predictor of future success.
With that eternal truth in mind, it’s time for All Ball’s annual end-of-the-year look at the local sports teams – the year gone by and, more importantly, the year ahead.
Even if this were one of those totally annoying what-we-did-this-year Christmas letters sent out in bulk by helicopter parents, this would still be an incredibly difficult story to write.
That’s because for die-hard LA sports fans there’s only been one thing to brag about this year — and even then the over-achieving rich kid who made his parents proud immediately drove the family’s new Tesla into the ditch and got arrested for drunk driving.
We’re talking, of course, about the Rams, who fulfilled owner Stan Kroenke’s dream that his team would win the Super Bowl in his $5.5 billion football palace in Inglewood known as SoFi Stadium.
The blessed event was only 11 months ago, but it feels like 11 years ago. And because it’s extremely unlikely to be repeated any time in the near-term future, it’s worth revisiting the highlights of that incredible Super Bowl journey.
It started with the pre-season trade of much-maligned quarterback Jared Goff to the Detroit Lions. The Rams had traded a bunch of first round draft picks to get the right to draft Goff with the first overall pick back in 2016, and from the get-go the team was immediately much improved.
New Coach Sean McVay proved to be the smartest hire General Manager Les Snead ever made, an offensive genius who specializes in developing quarterbacks. By McVay’s and Goff’s third season together the Rams made it all the way to the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots.
Once there, unfortunately, they scored only 3 points in a 12-3 loss and for the first-time doubts were raised about Goff’s ability to win the big one. Too often his passes were slightly off target, he never threw a tight spiral and he was prone to interceptions, and fumbles at crucial times.
When the Rams missed the playoffs the next season, McVay was clearly fed up with Goff, and started agitating for the front office to find a replacement.
It took a year, but eventually the Rams pulled off a trade for talented Detroit Lions veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford. It cost them Goff and another bushel basket of draft picks, but McVay was happy and said he could make this work and get the Rams back to the Super Bowl.
He did more than that, of course, and during the playoffs they won four straight games by three points each – including a 23-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in the Super Bowl.
Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp came through time after time at the end of close games, and defensive monster Aaron Donald led a ferocious defense that kept the score down and enabled the Rams to win the close ones.
While even the most ardent Rams fans had to admit that everything went exactly right on their Super Bowl journey, McVay, Stafford and Donald all predicted the Rams would run it back and win another Super Bowl this season.
We all knew it would be hard, but no one expected everything to go exactly wrong in the season that began last September. But after stumbling off to a 3-3 start, that is exactly what happened. The Rams lost their next six games to fall to 3-9 with no hope of making the playoffs. Indeed, they posted the worst record ever for any team that had won the Super Bowl the previous season.
In the process Stafford, Kupp and Donald were all knocked out with injuries and then declared out for the rest of the season.
McVay called it the “most humbling experience of my life” and vowed to learn from it.
But with Stafford turning 35 in February and physically no longer up to surviving the 17-week grind of an NFL season, the Rams appeared to have mortgaged their future for that one Super Bowl win.
Then they got lucky, so lucky that if they play their cards right they will have a chance of returning to the Super Bowl as soon as next season.
Three weeks ago quarterback Baker Mayfield, the first overall pick in the 2018 draft and the 2017 Heisman Trophy winner, was released by the Carolina Panthers, one of the worst and most dysfunctional franchises in the entire NFL.
His appearance on the waiver wire was timed perfectly for the Rams, who thanks to their horrible record had the first chance to claim him off waivers.
They took him on a Tuesday, put him through one day of practice, and then on a Thursday night watched him orchestrate a 98-yard last minute drive that ended with a touchdown pass that gave them a one-point victory over Las Vegas.
They stumbled the next week in a loss to Green Bay, but on Christmas night Mayfield did it again. He had one of the best passing games in Rams history – hitting on 24 of 28 throws – while leading the Rams to a 51-14 rout over Denver.
Now comes the tricky part: Mayfield will be a free agent at the end of the season, meaning any team can sign him. But if he’s smart, he will stick with the Rams and McVay, who will give him his best chance to revive his career and become the big star he was supposed to be not so long ago.
The Rams of course will have to pony up, meaning each time he has a great game for them his price goes up. There are about 25 teams in the NFL that need a new quarterback, so there will be plenty of bidders for Mayfield’s services.
But it’s the Rams best hope – indeed, their only hope – to repeat last season’s achievement. With both Stafford and Mayfield on the roster, the Rams will be set at quarterback.
Pay the man!
Trojans: so close, yet so far away
The USC football team almost matched the Rams championship accomplishment. New Trojans Coach Lincoln Riley was hired a year ago, cleaned most of the dead wood out of the program, and led his team to a 10-2 record after the Trojans finished 4-8 last year under Clay Helton.
He brought quarterback Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma, and Williams went on to win the Heisman Trophy.
The sad part was that Williams tore his hamstring in the PAC-12 championship game against Utah, and the Trojans lost a chance to advance to the College Football playoffs.
But with Williams coming back next season, and his eventual replacement, top-rated Malachi Nelson, scheduled to arrive on campus next summer, the Trojans are on track to win the college championship next year with Williams repeating as the Heisman Trophy winner.
It’s a full year away, and anything can happen in the next 12 months, but the Trojans are more of a sure thing than the Rams or the Dodgers.
Dodgers wet the bed
Which brings us to the other almost-successful team this year, the Dodgers. They set a franchise record with 111 regular season wins and won their 10th Western Division title in the last 11 years.
Then they fell completely apart in the first round of the playoffs against the San Diego Padres.
That first round loss was a shock to the system of Dodgers fans. But after the season it got worse: the heart and guts of the team – third baseman Justin Turner, shortstop Trae Turner, outfielder and former National League MVP Cody Bellinger, and pitchers Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney – all departed for other teams offering more money than the Dodgers.
The only good news: Clayton Kershaw signed to come back for one more year, but at this stage of his career it’s not fair to expect a complete season out of him. The Dodgers will be happy to take whatever Kershaw gives them next season.
The Dodgers have made the playoffs 11 years in a row, but that incredible streak is in real danger next season unless some of their kid prospects like infielder Gavin Lux, and pitchers Ryan Pepiot and Bobby Miller blossom into true major leaguers.
Beyond next season, the real Dodgers drama involves Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani, who will be an unrestricted free agent next fall.
It says here it will take $500 million – that’s half a billion, for you mathematically challenged readers – to entice the slugger/star pitcher to move up the 405 to Chavez Ravine.
Prediction: the Dodgers will dig deep, raise the price of a draft beer from $15 to $18.50, and pay whatever it takes to sign Othani.
Chargers in the playoffs
The only other team worth mentioning in terms of positive future prospects is the Chargers, who have one of the top three young quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert, along with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Buffalo’s Josh Allen.
The Chargers clinched a playoff spot with Monday night’s 20-3 win over the Colts, and now the entire nation will get a chance to see just how good Herbert is under the playoff spotlight.
Looking ahead, the Chargers are well positioned to make the playoffs every year, and if they can just get Herbert a few more offensive weapons – primarily a heavy-duty runner to take some pressure off pint-sized rusher Austin Ekeler – they could be an elite team for the next decade or longer. That’s how good Herbert is.
Happy New Year.
Contact: teetor.paul@gmail.com. Follow: @paulteetor ER